US Economic Update

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Hello needelegation.org owner, You always provide great insights.
Posted on 2023-02-06 04:41:32 by Guest
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Posted on 2022-08-28 14:06:33 by Guest
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Posted on 2022-03-05 17:55:12 by Guest
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Posted on 2021-04-07 15:21:07 by Guest
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Posted on 2021-03-27 19:32:02 by Guest
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Posted on 2021-01-24 23:11:29 by Guest
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Updated 10/30 to incorporate 1st Q3 GDP estimate.  Lots of other graphs updated as well.
Posted on 2019-10-30 09:08:23 by Jon Haveman
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Updated to include 3rd release of Q2 2019 GDP
Posted on 2019-09-26 09:37:54 by Jon Haveman
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Update fixes some graph formatting and adds in data from Q2 - second release.
Posted on 2019-08-30 12:15:13 by Jon Haveman
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Updated to include JOLTS and latest stock market data.
Posted on 2019-08-06 14:05:05 by Jon Haveman
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Updated to reflect employment growth in July.
Posted on 2019-08-02 09:45:17 by Jon Haveman
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Updated to include today's employment update.
Posted on 2019-07-05 10:23:41 by Jon Haveman
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Updated to include today's employment update.
Posted on 2019-07-05 09:42:30 by Jon Haveman
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I have updated all of the figures in the slide deck with data available through today.

I have not yet updated the narrative - summary, in particular, probably needs significant attention.
Posted on 2019-06-17 11:39:48 by Jon Haveman
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Updated slide deck to incorporate new (May) employment data and a wide variety of other indicators.
Posted on 2019-06-08 01:14:39 by Jon Haveman
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Updated 5/3 to incorporate new employment data.

Most striking is that the labor force has declined for the 4th consecutive month.

That hasn't happened since the 2nd half of 2009
Posted on 2019-05-03 13:16:28 by Jon Haveman
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Updated to reflect today's Q1 GDP figures and contributions.  A variety of other measures were also updated: CPI, Wages, mortgage rates, treasuries, et al.
Posted on 2019-04-26 18:14:14 by Jon Haveman
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I have just updated the presentation and narrative to account for the employment release this morning. Job growth is back to average (or a little below).

I've also updated the 10 year - 3 month treasury spread. After briefly inverting it is now back on the right side of zero, but not by much.
Posted on 2019-04-05 09:01:17 by Jon Haveman
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Couple of minor updates, yield curve, mortgage rates, disposable income....
Posted on 2019-03-29 09:20:01 by Jon Haveman
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Just updated to reflect today's GDP release and the interest rate inversion that happened last Friday.
Posted on 2019-03-28 12:29:54 by Jon Haveman
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This update includes Q4 GDP components as well as February employment data.
Posted on 2019-03-12 13:37:57 by Jon Haveman
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I have just updated the slide deck to include all data released to date.

The next major update will be on 2/28 when Q4-gdp is  released.  I will make interim updates as well.

As always, comments are welcome and desired!
Posted on 2019-02-08 09:31:36 by Jon Haveman
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The U.S. Economy slide deck and narrative have been updated to reflect the recent inflation and JOLTS data - among other indicators.
Posted on 2019-01-14 10:48:32 by Jon Haveman
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I have updated this presentation.  Employment and JOLTS data are now included through Dec and Nov, respectively.  Also, the stock market data and interest rate data are all up to date.  Interest rates are plunging as the market does the same.

I have not updated the summary slides.  These are largely a game day subject these days.
Posted on 2019-01-08 14:04:57 by Jon Haveman
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Presentation and narrative updated to reflect Q3-secondary GDP and a variety of other statistics, including JOLTS, housing, corp profits, etc.
Posted on 2018-11-28 11:07:12 by Jon Haveman
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I have just updated the US Economy presentation to include the various data releases from last week. In particular the employment update.

I have also added what I hope will be an important resource for people giving this talk, or similar talks.  That resource includes graphs for the nation, states, and all U.S. counties on the following:

1) employment situation - employment and unemployment trends

2) Employment growth relative to the nation

3) unemployment - comparison w/state and nation for counties and comparison with nation for states

4) Labor force growth - comparison w/state and nation for counties and comparison with nation for states

5) Gross state product - comparing growth in 7 key sectors in a state with the the nation, 2010-2017  (No county data)

6) Employment growth at the county and state level.  6 key sectors between 2010 and 2018

7) Per Capita income -   comparison w/state and nation for counties and comparison with nation for states

8) Income inequality (gini) -  comparison w/state and nation for counties and comparison with nation for states

9) poverty -  comparison w/state and nation for counties and comparison with nation for states

10) child poverty -  comparison w/state and nation for counties and comparison with nation for states

11) home prices -  comparison w/state and nation for counties and comparison with nation for states  (FHFA)

12) home permitting (per 1,000 in population) -  comparison w/state and nation for counties and comparison with nation for states

13) population growth -  comparison w/state and nation for counties and comparison with nation for states

Although the US slide deck includes sample graphs for California and Marin County, you can find the same graphs for all states and counties here:

www.needelegation.org/LocalGraphs

Comments more than welcome.
Posted on 2018-11-05 17:31:14 by Jon Haveman
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Presentation has been updated to include Q3 GDP update.  A slide has also been added that includes evidence on auto and light truck sales, which are slowing. 

General tone has gone to one of more caution rather than enthusiasm.  Thoughts?
Posted on 2018-10-27 14:30:50 by Jon Haveman
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Updated to include October 5 jobs numbers (through September).
Posted on 2018-10-09 17:44:33 by Jon Haveman
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This slide deck and narrative have just been updated to reflect the 3rd release of Q2-GDP.  Other data have also been updated, including some housing statistics, interest rates, stock market values, and corporate profits.

Always happy to have comments about the content, in particular views about the future.  Thanks!
Posted on 2018-09-27 15:09:27 by Jon Haveman
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I have just updated the US Economy presentation to include data on employment released today (8/3).  Other graphs have also been updated, including stock markets, interest rates, and inflation.

I welcome comments on this presentation, especially with regard to the narrative.
Posted on 2018-08-03 12:13:12 by Jon Haveman
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